MLB: Top MLB Weekend StatFox Betting Trends 9/25-9/27



2009-09-25

There are only two full weekends left in the baseball regular season, then we move on to the playoffs. Unfortunately, unlike recent years, it seems that the drama normally associated with pennant races at this time of year has been minimized. The only two spots still relatively up for grabs are the A.L. Central title and the N.L. Wildcard. Read on as we look at the action affecting each of those races, plus reveal some this weekend’s Top StatFox Trends from every bet-able matchup for your consideration. Get more key info on each series from Sportbook.com on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.

Most baseball eyes are the American League Central Division race at this time. Heading into the weekend, three games separate the first place Tigers from the Twins. Minnesota has come on like gangbusters of late though, making things quite interesting. Manager Ron Gardenhire’s team is 9-1 in its last 10 games, winning by two or more runs in all but one of the victories. That stretch has made a lot of money for run line backers of the Twins in particular. They have scored six runs or more in seven of those 10 games, and have been very consistent. This weekend, Minnesota is in Kansas City, who has once again been relegated to the spoiler role. The Royals have been playing well of late too though, having won seven of their L11 games. Interestingly, the road team has won nine of the 12 head-to-head games between these teams in ’09.

Minnesota will be looking for help from the White Sox this weekend, as Chicago welcomes Detroit to the Windy City. Things have unraveled for Manager Ozzie Guillen’s team lately, as they have fallen out of the race by dropping seven of their last eight games. The Sox are 15-9 in their L24 when hosting the Tigers though. Detroit is 10-games under .500 on the road in ’09 for -10.4 net units.

No talk of American League Baseball would be complete this weekend without at least bringing up the Red Sox and Yankees, who play their final regular season head-to-head series of the year. It’s quite possible the teams will meet in the A.L. Championship series but for now, this could be the end of the rivalry for ’09. New York, who has won six of the last seven games between the teams, goes into the weekend with a 5-1/2 game lead in the East and a chance to clinch the division title with a series sweep.

In the National League, Atlanta has crept to within 3-1/2 games of the Rockies for the wildcard lead, while Florida and San Francisco are just 4 games back. For the three chasing teams, they will be looking for help from St. Louis, who visits Denver this weekend. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have little motivation beyond just continuing to play good baseball, since they are just a win or Cubs’ loss away from clinching the Central Division crown. The Rockies also swept the Cards in St. Louis back in June. The Braves will be in Washington for the weekend, while the Marlins host the Mets and San Francisco takes on the Cubs at home.

Take a look at these Top StatFox MLB Betting Trends before you hit the confirm button on any of your weekend baseball wagers.

ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 23-60 (-26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in 2009. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.2, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 20-54 (-31.7 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 3*)

NY METS at FLORIDA
NY METS are 19-33 (-15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in 2009. The average score was NY METS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-19 (-13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 2.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 12-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in 2009. The average score was COLORADO 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO is 14-7 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in September games in 2009. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-16 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in 2009. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at TORONTO
TORONTO is 26-17 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was TORONTO 5.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)

BOSTON at NY YANKEES
BOSTON is 2-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in 2009. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 15-28 (-12.6 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 in 2009. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at TEXAS
TAMPA BAY is 9-24 (-19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in 2009. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 38-24 (+10.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents in 2009. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX
DETROIT is 32-44 (-17.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 48-29 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

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