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New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Game 1 Betting Odds2010-10-07
Sportsbook.com Lines: New York -145, Minnesota +135 Total: 7.5
The defending World Series champs open up their title defense by sending CC Sabathia to the mound in Game 1, as outdoor October baseball returns to Minnesota for the first time in 40 years.
The big left-hander hopes to continue New York’s recent dominance of the Twins. The Yankees are 20-6 (+12.9 Units) against Minnesota over the past three years. Sabathia has enjoyed success of his own against the Twins, going 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA in 29 career starts against his ex-division rival. He’s won his last six starts against Minnesota, posting a miniscule 1.27 ERA over that span. Sabathia has also fared well on the road this year, taking a 10-5 mark and a 3.34 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup.
Fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA) will make the start for the Twins. Liriano has been one of the reasons the Twins posted the best home record in the AL this year, going 7-5 with a 3.11 ERA at Target Field. However, he enters the postseason on a rocky note after losing his last three starts and posting an 8.10 ERA over that span. He’s 0-2 in four career starts against the Yankees, but has a strong 3.33 ERA against New York. The Twins have dropped all four of Liriano’s starts against the Yanks.
Despite Liriano’s numbers against New York, this baseball betting trend found at Sportsbook.com sides with Minnesota Game 1:
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor base running team - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, in October games.
(42-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.8%, +35.6 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Against - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, starting over a rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (72-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +39.8 units. Rating = 3*).
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MLB Series Betting- Boston at Philadelphia2010-05-21
It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs. For the 3-game set, Sportsbook.com lists Philadelphia as a -220 favorite.
Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.
Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.
Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.
Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.
Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years.
The Phillies will look to change ways, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.
Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.
The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.
Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.
Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia
The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.
Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.
This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:25 Eastern.
Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia
We’ll give a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox, however, be aware you will need to lay -220 to collect, as Sportsbook.com’s series odds show: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220